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This week's focus is on the impact of rising oil and energy prices in light of increasing tensions between Iran and the United States over the Strait of Hormuz. Add to this the damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region and the outlook for US energy companies such as Chevron could improve by mid-2026. In the meantime, the reporting season for the first quarter of 2026 has gotten off to a good start in the US, with 88% of S&P 500® companies reporting positive earnings surprises so far.

Geopolitical escalation, a K-shaped economy, AI-driven market dislocations and a weaker US dollar. Capital markets are under pressure in 2026. While stock markets and corporate earnings continue to climb in many places, consumers, bonds, currencies and entire industries are increasingly caught in a crossfire of uncertainty, inequality and structural change. This Investors' Outlook reveals what forces are really driving markets right now, where opportunities are emerging, what risks investors should keep on their radar and why looking beyond the headlines matters more than ever.

Another eventful year is drawing to a close - and we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your trust and loyalty! We wish you and your loved ones a Merry Christmas and a successful start to a happy and healthy New Year 2026.

After weeks of escalating rhetoric between the US and Iran, a preliminary peace agreement could be imminent, according to media reports, adding to signs of improvement. Tanker traffic had slowly picked up again, but remains well below pre-war levels.

A US aircraft carrier strike group has gathered near the Persian Gulf. The question is whether President Trump will launch a military attack on Iran or simply threaten to do so. If the US were to launch a military strike on Iran, both the VIX Index and the price of Brent crude oil could be affected. Although S&P 500® companies experience increased profit growth in Q4 2025, the S&P 500® and other major US stock indexes have underperformed European and Asian indexes thus far in 2026.

For individuals who invest in Knock-Out products such as Warrants with Knock-Out or Mini Futures, it is crucial to know when and under what conditions their product can be knocked out. But what many do not know: The trading times of the underlying asset play a decisive role here. If the underlying is not a share or an index, the trading times of the underlying and the product may diverge.

Reverse convertibles offer investors the opportunity to profit from sideways movements in the price of an underlying asset, usually a share. Similar to a bond, a reverse convertible features a coupon that is fixed at the time of issue and is generally paid out at the end of its term. The repayment of the nominal amount, on the other hand, depends on the performance of the underlying asset. A predetermined price level (strike price) is of decisive importance here. If the price is at or above the strike price at the end of the term, the investor will receive the nominal amount back. If the price is below the exercise price on the maturity date, the investor will be delivered units of the underlying with the settlement type “physical delivery”, the value of which will usually be less than the nominal amount. Alternatively, a cash settlement is also possible.

Mini Futures provide investors with the opportunity to participate disproportionately, leveraging a smaller capital investment, in the price movement of an underlying asset. Long Mini Futures allow for betting on rising prices, while Short Mini Futures enable wagering on falling prices. These products have an unlimited term unless prematurely terminated by reaching the stop-loss level. Additionally, a wide range of asset classes such as stocks, indices, commodities, precious metals, interest instruments, currency pairs, and cryptocurrencies are available.

Warrants with Knock-Out provide investors with a leveraged participation in the performance of a financial asset. The leverage effect arises from the fact that less capital is required compared to a direct investment. Investors can speculate on both rising and falling prices with less capital invested. Various asset classes such as stocks, indices, commodities, precious metals, interest instruments, or currency pairs are available.

Warrants enable investors to participate disproportionally in the performance of the underlying with less invested capital than a direct investment. If investors expect prices to rise, they can position themselves with a Call warrant. Put warrants are available if prices are expected to decline. Additionally, warrants have a fixed maturity and a strike price. Investors can choose from a wide range of different asset classes such as stocks, indices, commodities, precious metals and currency pairs.