New uncertainty in the market

A warm summer and the ongoing World Cup could boost beer consumption and investor sentiment toward breweries and beverage companies. Following the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February, the Carlsberg B share dropped by about 25 percent, likely due to concerns about the crisis's adverse effects on consumer sentiment, freight, and raw material costs. The stock has since recovered somewhat, bolstered by the Q1 2026 trading update, which showed organic growth slightly above expectations. However, as with other consumer staples shares, Carlsberg has underperformed the broader market, with investors flocking back to technology shares. If the AI hype stalls, shares in defensive sectors, including breweries, could narrow the performance gap. 

As shown by the Dow Jones US Beverages Index (^DJUSBV), Carlsberg’s share price has recently lagged behind that of other beverage companies. 

Headwinds include cost inflation and sluggish consumer spending in Asia. However, the situation should be manageable, as recent history in 2022 and 2023 suggests. Despite margin pressure following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and other supply chain bottlenecks, gross profit per hectolitre increased during that period, with price increases helping offset the impact. Recently, there has been increased hope that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. As markets are generally forward-looking, this could boost investor confidence in Carlsberg. Additionally, an initial public offering (IPO) of Carlsberg’s Indian business could accelerate the timeline for shareholder returns, potentially achieving high single-digit cash yields by 2027. 

The share is currently trading at the lower end of the DKK 800–890 trading range observed over the past few months. If the MA200 support level of around DKK 830 holds, this could present an attractive entry point.

Peace talks between the United States (U.S.) and Iran have gotten off to a rocky start. Iran has realised that threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz is an effective way ofinfluencing Trump. Should Israel then stop its military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon? After all, this issue is covered in the letter of intent regarding the peace deal between the United States (U.S.) and Iran. However, Brent oil fell by a further 3 percent (3%) on Monday 22 June, suggesting that stock markets are not overly concerned about this. Nevertheless, investors should pay attention to the possibility of higher interest rates within a year. Last week, the new head of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Kevin Warsh, delivered a rather hawkish speech last week, reminding us that inflation in the United States (US) has exceeded the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) goal of 2 percent (2%) for several years.

The following monthly summary shows that Japan's Nikkei index has performed best so far this year when calculated in local currencies. Second place went to the United States (US) Small Cap (Capitalisation) Index Russell 2000, and third palce to the NASDAQ.

As expected, it turned out to be a "sell the news" scenario. The risk has tilted back towards the downside due to fresh setbacks in the discussions about the Iran conflict, the AI sell-off, and a more hawkish Fed than expected. As the S&P 500® Index chart below shows, positive momentum is fading, and the MACD is close to generating a sell signal. Currently, the index is trading near thet 7,340 support level. If this level is broken, the next support levels are seen around 7,250 and 7,150, respectively. However, as the chart shows, trading has been volatile since mid-May, and sentiment could change quickly. On the upside, resistance is seen around 7,500, followed by the previous high around 7,610.

Looking at the NASDAQ-100 Index®, it is clear that the index is trading below support. Momentum continues to weaken as AI-related stocks come under pressure. The next downside level is around 28,675. On the upside, the first resistance level is MA20, currently at 29,912, followed by the previous highs.

The German DAX® has held up relatively well with less direct exposure to Fed hawkishness and no obvious AI angle, trading around its MA20. However, the index is struggling to find direction as momentum continues to fade. At the same time, downside risk appears limited, as initial support has emerged in the 24,560–24,655 range. On the upside, previous highs around 25,400 are likely to act as resistance, and a clear catalyst will probably be required for the index to surpass this level.

Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading below its 200-day moving average, leaving scope for further downside. Against this backdrop, the long DAX®, short S&P 500® Index spread strategy could become popular again, particularly given the clear differences in the composition of the two indices..

EMA 9: 9-day exponential moving average

Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.

MA20: 20-day moving average

MA50: 50-day moving average

MA100: 100-day moving average

MA200: 200-day moving average

MACD: Moving average convergence divergence