Airbus gets a boost from China
In April 2025, China banned its airlines from purchasing Boeing aircraft amid the US customs chaos. Such announcements create uncertainty for long-term planned fleet investments. European industry leader Airbus can now look forward to a major purchase order from China. Although nothing is in the bag yet, this underlines the fact that trade between Europe and China could become increasingly important in the aftermath of the US punitive tariffs.
Is the China deal coming?
According to media reports, Airbus is negotiating the delivery of up to 500 aircraft to Chinese airlines - more concrete information and framework conditions could possibly come to light during the visit of European heads of state to Beijing in July this year. According to experts, there is an increasing need for fleet modernization among Chinese airlines after several years of restraint (Reuters, 04.06.2025).
Such an order would not only be of great importance for Airbus, but could also have political implications. In April of this year, the Chinese government banned its airlines from purchasing aircraft from US competitor Boeing. Although it is still unclear whether this measure will continue in the long term, the climate in Beijing is undoubtedly more favorable for Airbus. The company has been present in China for years and has production sites, cooperation agreements and research facilities in the country. For example, Airbus operates a final assembly line for the A320neo family in Tianjin. In the past, however, China has liked to hold out the prospect of major economic deals before state visits and used them as diplomatic decoys.
Delivery problems impact production
While new orders beckon, the company continues to struggle with ongoing production bottlenecks. According to Reuters, Airbus only delivered 51 aircraft in May 2025, a decrease of 4 percent compared to the same month last year. Over the year as a whole, this represents a drop of around 5 percent. At the beginning of the year, Airbus had set itself the ambitious target of delivering around 820 aircraft by the end of 2025, a target that is coming under increasing pressure in view of the existing supply chain problems. Industry insiders (Reuters, 28.05.2025) now assume that the delays could even extend into 2028. Against this backdrop, it remains to be seen when and at what speed a potential major order for over 500 aircraft could actually be realized.
The A320 and A321 models are particularly affected by delivery problems. Although Airbus had planned to increase production of its bestsellers to 75 aircraft per month, Airbus is lagging behind. Problems at suppliers such as engine manufacturers mean that aircraft cannot be delivered or maintained on time, which in turn leads to flight cancellations and reductions in flight schedules for airlines. To counteract this, Airbus announced the acquisition of several Spirit AeroSystems production sites in April 2025. The plants of this formerly independent supplier, which are located in the USA, Europe and Africa, play an important role in the production of fuselages and other structural segments. With this measure, the company is attempting to regain control of critical production steps and stabilize its own supply chain.
US tariffs on steel and aluminum weigh on aviation
Despite the confidence with regard to China, Airbus is coming under additional pressure from US import tariffs. The US government recently announced (The White House, 03.06.2025) a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. This could have consequences for the wider aviation industry. Aircraft components are still exempt from tariffs under a WTO (World Trade Organization) trade agreement introduced in the 1980s, but this could change. According to Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce in the Trump cabinet, such tariffs on aircraft parts could soon become a reality (Bloomberg, 04.06.2025). If this measure is implemented, Airbus could also be affected. The company has a final assembly site in the US state of Alabama (Mobile), where aircraft from the A320neo family, among others, are assembled.
Will Airbus succeed in taking off?
Airbus shares have performed rather modestly since the start of the year (around +3.30 percent on June 10, 2025), while its competitor Boeing has made strong gains since the start of the year (around +26.50 percent) after a difficult year in 2024. The benchmark index STOXX® Europe 600 Industrial Goods & Services, which comprises European industrial stocks, has also outperformed the Airbus share with a performance of around +14 percent since the start of the year.
It remains to be seen what the future holds for Airbus and the aviation industry as a whole. While the potential major order from China could provide Airbus with welcome momentum, concrete results have yet to be formalized - and Airbus' internal production inefficiencies still need to be addressed. At the same time, the impact of the US tariff policy remains unclear, as it does for other industries. The question of how and whether supply chains and production processes can adapt to the new environment is just as unclear as the continuation of the tariffs themselves.
