Commodity update 74

Oil

Market participants considered China‘s reduced growth forecast as the main driver for the weak oil prices at the beginning of the week. The published growth rate of 6,5 percent represents the smallest rate for 26 years. China is worldwide the biggest purchaser of oil.

Further, the agreed cut in the production seems not to be executed properly in Russia. According to the Russian ministry of energy, the daily production is quantified with 11,11 Mio. barrel per day. Comparing this figure to the announced target rate in last October, the cut just displays 50 percent of the announced reduction.

Moreover, analysts of the Commerzbank still doubt the reliability of the OPEC’s production cut. Generally, the targets have been accomplished, but this is mainly caused by extraordinary higher cuts in production by Saudi Arabia. Hence, less disciplined reductions of other members have been balanced out.

Gold

Gold continued its solid start into the year and rose about 2,7 percent to USD 1,248 per ounce which represents a five-month-high. However, the forecasts for the precious metal may be challenging. The market expects an imminent raise of the US interest rates. The shares of gold miners dropped despite the gold price rose. Experts of the German Stabilitas GmbH assume several profit takings and a possible forthcoming consolidation.

Platinum

The platinum price proceeded on its upward trend and passed the USD 1,000 level. Martin Siegel of Stabilitas GmbH focuses on the declining spread between gold and platinum which represents a relative strength. Furthermore, the analysts of Commerzbank expect a rising demand, since the World Platinum Investment council (WPIC) announced the issue of several investment products on platinum.