Tesla Q3 2025 Preview: Can record deliveries translate into profit power?
Tomorrow on October 22, Tesla Inc. is set to release their results for the third quarter of 2025. Zacks Consensus for the to-be-reported results is pegged at Earnings Per Share of 52 cents and revenues of $26.27 billion. Will the company outperform expectations when the closing bell rings?
Record deliveries and problems in Europe
Earlier this October, Tesla disclosed a record delivery of 497,099 units globally, a new all-time high quarterly number. Tesla benefited from a special tailwind. The US $7,500 EV tax credit expired on September 30, resulting in buyers rushing to purchase at a discounted price. The announcement of record deliveries sets high expectations, but it also raises a question; will they manage to turn the turnover into durable earnings? The expiry of the EV tax credit might account for a large part of the record volumes, causing accelerated demand. Despite increased demand in the US, the sales of Tesla cars have been on a decline in Europe. In August of this year, the Tesla EV registrations, a proxy for sales, fell by about 23% year on year. In the first eight months the number of registrations of Tesla cars in Europe declined by a total of 32.6%. In comparison, the total EV registrations in the region grew by around 26%, indicating a shift in preference among consumers. Elon Musk’s involvement in politics and with President Donald Trump has hurt the Tesla brand tremendously and together with competition from Chinese automakers their European market share has declined.
Forecasts and expectations
As mentioned above, the Zacks Consensus pegs the Q3 2025 revenue of Tesla at $26.27 billion and Earnings Per Share at $0.52. These estimates represent a significant decline from the same period a year ago, of around 25-28%, despite the record volume of deliveries. Whether Tesla will manage to beat expectations or not on October 22, earnings release day is usually a day of both volatility and opportunity. Vontobel offers a wide range of products with Tesla Inc. as underlying. By utilizing our Constant Leverage Certificates, Mini Futures, or Unlimited Turbos one can gain short or long exposure to Tesla with different levels of leverage.
The road ahead
According to Yahoo Finance, Tesla is currently trading at around $440 and is up over 80% in the last 6 months. According to Bloomberg, analysts covering Tesla are split between the recommendations of buy, sell and hold. 46% say buy, 27% hold, and 27% sell. Tesla’s Q3 2025 results aren’t just about a single quarter, they will influence how investors view its transition from a pure EV maker to company spanning energy, autonomy and software. If Tesla can demonstrate that they can translate record deliveries into profitability, Q3 could mark a shift in the valuation. On the other hand, disappointing margins or weak forward outlook might do the complete opposite and reset expectations sharply downward.
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