Unstable waters: Maersk and other shipping companies reroute ships.

The conflict between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, is spreading in the Middle East and groups loyal to Hamas, many supported by Iran, are carrying out attacks on Western targets, including in the Red Sea. The Iranian-backed Huthi rebels, also labelled as terrorists in several countries, took control of about 30% of Yemen's territory, including the capital and the Red Sea coastal strip, in 2014. The group has carried out several attacks against ships of several countries in the Red Sea. The Huthi attacks take place in the 27-kilometre-wide Bab al-Mandeb strait, which runs directly between Djibouti and Yemen. Ships have to cross this passage to reach the Suez Canal. The Houthi rebels launch their attacks from Yemen; a particularly sensational video shows the Houthi rebels landing with a helicopter on the cargo ship "Galaxy Leader", which they manage to take control of. On the night of 11-12 January 2024, President Biden announced that a military strike against the Houthi rebels had been successful. They then announced further attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

As a result of the attacks, several of the major shipping companies have rerouted traffic around South Africa, resulting in several extra days of travelling and increased freight costs. As a result of the attacks, the UN Security Council voted in favour of a resolution that attacks on commercial freighters should stop, but the Huthi rebels have chosen to continue the attacks. The US, UK and other allies have subsequently chosen to attack targets in Huthi-controlled areas of Yemen but many analysts fear that this will not stop the group from attacking.

The strait connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, which is also the only route to the Suez Canal and saves a lot of time for cargo shipping. This route is mainly used by cargo ships from Asia to reach European ports. The importance of this route already became clear during the Ever Given accident in March 2021, when the freighter belonging to the shipping company Evergreen Marine got stuck in the Suez Canal and caused a major traffic jam, resulting in massive supply bottlenecks.

A first prominent example in the current situation is Tesla's announcement that it is stopping most of the production at its Berlin-Brandenburg factory because it has not yet been able to supply the parts it needs.

The Red Sea with the Suez Canal is one of the most important maritime routes in the world, through which up to 12 per cent of world trade passes. However, the daily volume is currently only 200,000 containers per day compared to 500,000 containers per day in November, as reported by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The route around the Godahoppsudden is available as an alternative route. This extends the route from about 8,440 nautical miles to 11,720 nautical miles, which means a delay of up to 12 days. The route from Asia to Rotterdam goes through the Suez Canal and cargo ships usually need about seven weeks to cover this distance.

According to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), 18 shipping companies have now announced that they will take the longer route to South Africa. This is to protect the ships and their crews from possible attacks.

Onwards to the Panama Canal which is currently seeing low water levels which limits the total amount of cargo. As a result, shipping companies choose to unload the ships at each end and then make the transport via rail. Due to the extra time this takes and the increased costs of rail transport, there is some concern that prices will go up due to the limited amount of freight each ship can take.

The longer journey times between China and Europe and between the Pacific and the Caribbean automatically reduce the available capacity for container ships. For example, this has led to a doubling of freight costs between Asia and Europe. The SCFI, short for Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, is considered one of the most important indicators for sea freight containers. In November 2023 it stood at just under USD 1,000, but has since risen to around USD 2,200. The costs here refer to a TEU container, short for Twenty-foot Equivalent Container, which is the smaller of the two ISO containers.

Due to the reduced capacity, which meets a constant demand, shipping companies and ship owners may be among the main winners of the crisis, as they can charge higher prices. However, the long-term effects of this are still uncertain.