Bitcoin: Has the Bottom Been Reached?

What makes this correction notable is that several macro factors would typically be considered supportive for risk assets, including digital assets. Inflation has been easing and interest rate expectations have shifted lower. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty remains high and the US dollar has weakened again. Gold has surged past USD 5,000 per ounce, equities continue to perform strongly, and other so-called “hard assets” have rallied.

Yet Bitcoin has struggled to benefit from this environment, despite its reputation as “digital gold” and a hedge against currency debasement. The inability to reclaim the USD 70,000 level on a sustainable basis has weighed on sentiment. Institutional flows remain negative and market structure points to limited conviction among buyers.

This divergence challenges the “digital gold” narrative in the short term. In an environment where the long-term stability of the US dollar is being debated and traditional safe havens are rallying, many expected Bitcoin to thrive. Instead, capital has rotated into precious metals, particularly gold, rather than into crypto.

The launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 was one of the biggest structural developments for the crypto market. With their introduction, Bitcoin became further integrated into mainstream financial markets, providing deeper liquidity and broader accessibility. However, the past few months have been marked by significant outflows.

Over the past three months, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has recorded approximately USD 2.8 billion in net outflows. Across the broader spot Bitcoin ETF universe, roughly USD 5.8 billion has left the asset class over the same period (CNBC, 15.02.2026). While these numbers appear substantial, the longer-term picture remains more balanced. Over the past year, IBIT has attracted nearly USD 21 billion in net inflows, while total spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen approximately USD 14.2 billion in net inflows (CNBC, 15.02.2026). In other words, capital is being reduced but not necessarily exiting the asset class altogether.

ETF specialists argue that much of the recent pressure may stem from hedge funds and shorter-term speculators reducing exposure, rather than long-term investors or financial advisors exiting the asset class entirely. A significant amount of capital remains invested, suggesting repositioning rather than outright capitulation. In addition, some broader selling pressure may also be linked to early-cycle investors taking profits or reducing risk after years of strong gains.

Meanwhile, sentiment among Bitcoin’s most vocal supporters remains resilient. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently dismissed short-term price weakness, arguing that cryptocurrency remains one of the best-performing asset classes in the long-term despite pullbacks. Cathie Wood, CEO at ARK Invest, delivered a similar message at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. Wood, argued that Bitcoin’ can hedge against not only inflation, but also a potential wave of technology-driven deflation. According to Wood, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized design make it a valuable alternative to debt-heavy financial systems which could come under strain by deflation.

Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, has also remained an active buyer. Between February 9 and February 16, the company purchased an additional 2,486 BTC for around USD 168.4 million, paying an average price of USD 67,710 per bitcoin.

Still, the latest sell-off is a reminder that volatility remains a defining feature of crypto markets. As always, only time will tell whether Bitcoin can rebound from here, or whether the current correction proves to be the start of a more prolonged downturn. Vontobel offers a wide range of leverage products with Bitcoin as underlying, allowing investors to take both long and short exposure depending on their own view.