Greenland: Strategic ground and strategic metals

In early January 2026, US President Donald Trump reignited the controversy surrounding Greenland, claiming that the island is critical to US national security. He also suggested that military force could be an option to secure it. These remarks followed broader US geopolitical moves, such as the intervention in Venezuela in early January. The Trump administration argues that controlling Greenland would strengthen the US position in the Arctic, given the apparent increased competition from China and Russia in the region. However, leaders from both Greenland and Denmark have firmly rejected the idea of a US takeover. It is clear the Greenlanders want autonomy self-governance. 

Greenland’s importance extends well beyond its size and location. Despite its small population of approximately 57,000 people, the island boasts significant natural resource potential. The resources include both metals such as copper and iron ore, as well as minerals such as lithium, graphite and rare earth elements. In an increasingly technology-focused global economy, critical metals and minerals are of growing importance. Currently, the price of copper is approximately $6 US Dollar per pound, up over 40% in the last 12 months. Copper is essential to the global energy transition. Due to its exceptional conductivity, copper is a cornerstone for electric vehicles, renewable power systems, and data centers, all parts of important industries experiencing strong growth. S&P Global and Bloomberg predict that the demand for copper could increase by 50% by 2040, reaching approximately 42 million tons by 2040. However, production is expected to hit a plateau by 2030.  In such a scenario the market could face a shortage of up to 10 million tons. Investment and commissioning of new deposits are slowing. On average, it takes more than 15 years from discovery to production, due to the declining metal content of ores and strict environmental regulations. Out of 239 large deposits discovered between 1990 and 2023, only 14 were found in the last decade.

Over the last year, the price of copper has performed strongly, driven mainly by a combination of tight supply, growing demand and geopolitical instability. On January 6, 2026, the benchmark price for copper hit an all-time high of above $13,300 on the London Metal Exchange. The price has increased by more than 40% over the last 12 months. After ending last year on a high, copper had its best annual performance since 2009. Vontobel offers a wide range of leverage products with copper as underlying, and you can gain both long and short exposure depending on your view.

The US threats against Greenland highlight the growing overlap between geopolitics and resource security. Trump administration officials view Greenland’s vast underground riches as a way to loosen China’s stranglehold on the rare-earth metals which are critical for everything from fighter jets to electric vehicles. However, despite its name, around 80% of Greenland is covered in ice, which makes extracting minerals there multiple times more expensive than elsewhere on the planet. It is unclear how a US invasion of Greenland would affect the prices of metals like copper is not clear, but the increased demand together with an expected supply shortage over the coming years could potentially push prices up significantly.