The focus is shifting towards the Q3 earnings season

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has reported third-quarter deliveries of 497,000 vehicles. This sets a new company record, marking the first time that Tesla has delivered almost half a million vehicles in a single three-month period. This figure far exceeded analyst estimates of 448,000, meaning Tesla outperformed expectations by around 11%.

Despite this strong performance, the market’s reaction was muted. This likely stems from two factors. First, much of the positive news may already have been factored into the stock price, given its significant rally over the past month. Second, the now-expired $7,500 federal tax credit, which ended in late September, likely pulled forward a significant number of sales that would otherwise have occurred in the fourth quarter. Consequently, Q4 deliveries are expected to fall notably as the impact of this one-off incentive fades.

Tesla has also reported its Q3 production figures, revealing that it produced 447,000 vehicles during this period. This represents a slight decline from the 470,000 vehicles produced in Q3 of last year. Unlike in the first half of this year and last year's third quarter, when production exceeded deliveries, Tesla sold more vehicles than it produced in Q3. While this could theoretically reflect production constraints, it is more plausible that Tesla intentionally scaled back output to manage its growing inventory. Reducing inventory levels, which have built up in recent quarters, improves both cash flow and the balance sheet. Lower inventories free up cash that was previously tied up in unsold vehicles, thereby improving free cash flow and overall liquidity. As Tesla's free cash flow generation has been weak in recent quarters, partly due to inventory accumulation, maintaining production below delivery levels appears to be a strategic move to strengthen cash flow and financial stability.

Tesla’s energy segment accounted for around 12% of total revenue in the second quarter and showed strong momentum in Q3. The company deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage, up from 6.9 GWh a year earlier — an increase of 81% year on year and a new record. This surpassed the previous record of 11 GWh, which was set in Q4 of 2024, reflecting the ongoing growth of Tesla’s energy operations. Although results in this segment can be volatile on a quarterly basis, this record deployment signals solid demand and growing adoption of Tesla’s energy storage products, such as the Megapack. Following a 7% decline in revenue in Q2, this rebound suggests that Tesla will likely report a significant increase in revenue for its energy business when it releases Q3 results at the end of October. This highlights the rising importance of the division as a key growth driver beyond the automotive sector.

The big question for investors is whether they should buy Tesla shares before the Q3 report is released on 22 October. Although Tesla exceeded expectations and demonstrated growth, 7% volume growth alongside a weak product mix is not particularly impressive, especially when competitors are achieving much stronger Electric vehicle (EV) sales, partly due to one-off political factors such as the tax credit that stimulated demand. Tesla has long aimed for 50% annual growth, yet its stock is trading as if it were a high-growth company, at over 270 times this year's Earnings per share (EPS). Under these circumstances, 7% growth simply isn’t enough to justify buying the stock. Tesla may eventually succeed with its robotics and other emerging businesses, but these outcomes are uncertain. With a market capitalisation of $1.5 trillion, much of this future success is already reflected in the price.

Investors in the US stock market have proven to be relatively unconcerned by the federal administration shutdown, the tenth for budgetary reasons since 1980. Meanwhile, the Q3 2025 reporting season begins next week. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 companies to increase their profits by 5.5% in Q3 and 7.2% in Q4.

On Wednesday, 8 October, Japan will publish its current account balance for August. Around six hours later, Sweden will publish its Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for September. Germany will publish its industrial production figures for August. In the US, the Department of Energy should publish weekly oil stock statistics, but this is uncertain due to the current shutdown of the federal administration. The day will end with the release of the minutes from the Fed's policy meeting on 17 September.

On Thursday, 9 October, we will receive interim reports from Öresund in Sweden, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines in the US, and Fast Retailing in Japan. Telecom operator MTG is hosting a capital markets day. Turning to macro news, we will first examine Germany's trade balance for August (see the graph below). Next, we will look at the weekly initial jobless claims in the US, although it is uncertain whether these will be published due to the shutdown of the US Federal Administration.

On Friday 10 October, Swedish real estate companies Atrium Ljungberg and Platzer, along with Danish insurer Tryg, will publish their interim reports. The macro statistics will begin with Japan's PPI for September. This will be followed by a GDP indicator and industrial production and household consumption figures for Sweden, all for August. In North America, Canada's unemployment rate will be released in September, followed by the scheduled release of the US Michigan index in October (uncertain for the aforementioned reason).

Is it best to keep the long S&P 500?

The S&P 500 remains in a strong bullish trend, trading above all major moving averages and within a rising channel. However, momentum is slowing, and an Relative Strength Index (RSI) of around 70 suggests that the market is overbought. Short-term consolidation or a mild pullback is possible, with key support levels at the bottom of the rising trend channel, followed by 6,600 and 6,500. As long as these levels hold, the broader uptrend will remain intact.

The NASDAQ-100 remains in a strong, well-defined upward trend, with higher highs and lows forming. The index is trading well above all key moving averages, which confirms its broad bullish strength. Both MACD and RSI support continued upside momentum, although the RSI reading of around 68 suggests limited short-term scope for growth. Immediate support lies between 24,000 and 24,450.

The DAX has broken out of its recent consolidation phase. The index is trading above all the key moving averages at the resistance level of around 24,550. MACD has issued a fresh buy signal, accompanied by a rising histogram. Meanwhile, RSI at 64 indicates strength without overbought conditions. Immediate support lies at 24,000 on the downside.

The OMXS30 is in a strong uptrend and has recently broken through to reach new highs within a rising price channel. The index is trading above all key moving averages, which are all upward-sloping, confirming broad bullish strength. Both MACD and RSI signal sustained momentum: the RSI is at 67, indicating strong but not overextended conditions. The next level on the upside is around 2,760. Support levels are seen at around 2,690 and 2,650.

The full name for abbreviations used in the previous text:

EMA 9: 9-day exponential moving average

Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.

MA20: 20-day moving average

MA50: 50-day moving average

MA100: 100-day moving average

MA200: 200-day moving average

MACD: Moving average convergence divergence