The US earnings season is ending strongly
The US Q1 2026 earnings season has concluded as convincingly as it began, with an overwhelming majority of positive earnings and revenue surprises among S&P 500 companies. The AI spending boom continues to drive the market, while the long DAX, short S&P 500 trade continues to look promising.
Macro comments
As of Friday, May 8, 89% of all S&P 500 companies had reported their first-quarter 2026 results. According to Earnings Insight, 84% of these companies had positive earnings surprises, and 80% had positive revenue surprises. In Q1 2026, the top three S&P 500 sectors were Information Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Staples, withrespective shares of positive earnings surprises of 94%, 91%, and 88%, respectively.
On Wednesday, May 13, we will receive interim reports from German Siemens, U.S. Cisco, Japanese SoftBank and Chinese Alibaba and Tencent. The macroeconomic news begins with Japan's current account balance for March. Next, we will move on to Europe, where we will receive the consumer price index for April from Sweden and France. Industrial production data for March and GDP data for the first quarter from the Eurozone are expected. Monthly oil reports from the IEA and OPEC will soon follow . The U.S. will contribute the producer price index for April (see graph below) and weekly oil stock reports from the Department of Energy.
An interim report from Swedish Klarna (listed in New York) is due Thursday, May 14. This is a public holiday in the Nordic region, so the stock exchanges in Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm are closed. Turning to macroeconomic news, we start with the UK's GDP for the first quarter and industrial production in March. Spain will report the consumer price index for April. The US will release retail trade and import prices for April, as well as intial weekly jobless claims and unsold goods inventories for March.
On Friday, May 15, the macro news feed will begin with Japan's producer price index for April. Next will be Germany's wholesale prices and Italy's consumer price index, both of which are for April. After that, we will receive the Empire State Manufacturing Index for May and the industrial production report for April from the U.S.
US Producer Price Index, May 2021-April 2026
A long DAX and a short S&P 500 still looking good
The earnings-fuelled rally that began in April continued to support the S&P 500. As the chart below shows, the RSI remains at overbought levels — a signal that has persisted long enough to test the patience of anyone positioned against the move. Meanwhile, US T-bill yields have risen alongside the oil price, adding a layer of macro complexity to an already overheated market. Timing remains the central challenge, but the short S&P 500, long DAX trade continues to look promising.
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S&P 500 (in USD), one-year daily chart
S&P 500 (in USD), five-year weekly chart
The AI spending boom remained the dominant theme of the period. Nvidia reached a new high, driven by unrelenting investment in AI across the chip sector, which reinforced the NASDAQ-100's position as the favoured means of accessing AI on Wall Street. On Monday, there was a slight pullback in hyperscalers and chip stocks, but the broader picture remains intact. As with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ-100 continues to trade at stretched levels, deemed overbought by most technical measures, yet supported by earnings and structural tailwinds that have so far proven hard to dispute.
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NASDAQ-100 (in USD), one-year daily chart
NASDAQ-100 (in USD), five-year weekly chart
In the absence of clear AI exposure, the OMXS30 has faced consistent challenges and is currently trading close to the support level of 3,000. A clean break to the downside would expose the 2,925 level.
OMX30 (in SEK), one-year daily chart
OMX30 (in SEK), five-year weekly chart
Meanwhile, Germany’s DAX closed above the 100-day moving average (MA100) yesterday, with the next upside level around 24,665. A long DAX and short S&P 500 trade continues to look appealing.
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DAX (in EUR), one-year daily chart
DAX (in EUR), five-year weekly chart
The full name for abbreviations used in the previous text:
EMA 9: 9-day exponential moving average
Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.
MA20: 20-day moving average
MA50: 50-day moving average
MA100: 100-day moving average
MA200: 200-day moving average
MACD: Moving average convergence divergence
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