Strong Q1 2026 earnings growth for the S&P500
Earnings in the S&P 500 grew by a record-breaking 27% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the highest level of earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2021. This week, attention turns to a series of interim reports from Nordic and European companies as well as interest rate announcements from Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank. The most important macro figure of the week is the U.S. nonfarm payroll report for April, which will be published on Friday, May 8.
Macro comments
As of Friday, May 1, 63% of all S&P 500 companies had reported their first-quarter 2026 results. According to Earnings Insight, 84% of these companies had positive earnings surprises, and 81% had positive revenue surprises. The earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in Q1 2026 is 27%, the highest rate since Q4 2021.
By Thursday, 30 April, 80 OMX companies had reported their first quarter 2026 results. Of these, 55% exceeded earnings expectations, down from 64% the previous week. Meanwhile, only 41% of companies exceeded revenue expectations, compared to 43% the previous week. The reports were more positive with regard to order intake: four out of seven companies (57%) reported stronger order intake than analysts had estimated prior to the reports.
On Wednesday 6 May, interim reports from Norwegian companies Equinor, Kongsberg and Ørsted, as well as Danish companies Novo Nordisk, Sydbank and Vestas are expected. In Germany, companies submitting quarterly reports include BMW, Continental, Daimler Truck, Klöckner and Zalando, as well as the Dutch company Philips. In the US, companies reporting their quarterly results include Snap, Timken, Walt Disney and Whirlpool. Turning to macroeconmic news, Wednesday's focus is on the services purchasing managers' index for April from China, Sweden, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the UK. Sweden will also release its CPI figure for April. The US will release figures on private employment in April and weekly oil inventories from the Department of Energy.
On Thursday 7 May, quarterly reports from Swedish companies Hufvudstaden, Loomis, Meko and Skanska, Finnish company Stora Enso, Norwegian companies Aker BP, DNO and Veidekke, and Danish companies Genmab, GN Store Nord, Maersk and Zealand Pharma will be released. Among the German companies reporting are Rheinmetall, and in the US, McDonald's. The Swedish company Essity is organising a capital markets day. The macroeconomic news agenda begins with Germany's industrial orders in March. The Swedish Riksbank and the Norwegian central bank, Norges Bank, will each release their interest rate announcements. We will also receive Eurozone retail sales figures for March. From the US, we will receive Challenger job cut statistics and weekly initial jobless claims data.
On Friday 8 May, Swedish real estate companies Balder and Sagax will publish their first quarter reports for 2026. Interim reports will also be released by the German bank Commerzbank, andthe Japanese companies Nintendo and Toyota. Friday's macroeconomic news agenda begins with Japan's services purchasing managers' index for April. Next, Germany's industrial production and trade balance for March will be examined. Turning to the US, the most important figure of the week is the non-farm payrolls report for April, for which the consensus expectation is 73,000 new jobs (see graph below). However, the US will also release the Michigan Index for May and wholesale inventories for March.
US non-farm payrolls (1,000 new jobs), May 2021-April 2026
A long DAX and short S&P 500 spread has potential
Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported Q1 2026 results, approximately 90% have beaten EPS estimates. This is the highest beat rate since Q4 2021. This widespread earnings strength has clearly driven the recent rally. However, as the chart below shows, RSI remains in overbought territory. This is not a sell signal in isolation, but it does indicate where sentiment stands. EMA9, followed by MA20, serves as support on the downside. A break below the 7,000 level comes into play.
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S&P 500 (in USD), one-year daily chart
S&P 500 (in USD), five-year weekly chart
Strong first-quarter results from major constituents, including Amazon and Alphabet, were the primary catalyst that lifted the tech-heavy index and set it on track for its fifth consecutive weekly gain. Once again, the RSI is in overbought territory, while the EMA9 and MA20 serve as support levels on the downside.
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NASDAQ-100 (in USD), one-year daily chart
NASDAQ-100 (in USD), five-year weekly chart
The Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices sparked a widespread risk-off movement, pushing the export-oriented OMXS30 index downward. The MA100 is holding as support on the downside, though the MA20 still needs to be reclaimed. Breaking above that level would open the door to a retest of previous highs.
OMX30 (in SEK), one-year daily chart
OMX30 (in SEK), five-year weekly chart
Meanwhile, the DAX in Germany closed above MA100 yesterday, and the next upside level is around 24,665. A long DAX and short S&P 500 trade still seems attractive.
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DAX (in EUR), one-year daily chart
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The full name for abbreviations used in the previous text:
EMA 9: 9-day exponential moving average
Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.
MA20: 20-day moving average
MA50: 50-day moving average
MA100: 100-day moving average
MA200: 200-day moving average
MACD: Moving average convergence divergence
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