Bitcoin and Ethereum in the crosshairs of Middle East conflict and interest rate pressure

The Strait of Hormuz crisis which began in early March quickly pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. Traditionally, such uncertaintywould trigger a “risk-off” reaction, but this time the crypto market has reacted with restraint. Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed more consistently than many major stock indices or even gold, which is considered a traditional safe haven asset.

Even before the crisis began, both assets were moving sideways, and this has continued throughout the crisis. Bitcoin has remained in a range of around $65,000 to $72,000, while Ethereum has fluctuated between $1,900 and $2,200. Although there have been larger isolated price movements, prices have quickly returned to within these limits.

A major breakthrough in regulation occurred on March 17, 2026, when the SEC and CFTC issued joint guidance creating a new “token taxonomy.” This framework classifies most crypto assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as non-securities “digital commodities.” This distinguishes commodities from digital collectibles, tools, stablecoins, and digital securities, providing much-needed institutional clarity to the market. While the comprehensive Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) remains stalled in the Senate, the regulators' new joint guidance from the regulators has provided investors with valuableinformation.

Despite the regulatory security, the Fed’s tight policy limits the immediate upside potential. At the March meeting, the target rate was left unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The central bank has been forced to revise its inflation forecast upwards to around 2.7%, primarirly due to rising energy costs resulting fromthe conflict in the Middle East. This presents a natural headwind to the price development of cryptocurrencies.

The Bitcoin price chart (BTC / USD) shows how the price of Bitcoin has mailny moved sideways during February and March. When looking at the 5-year chart (weekly candles), the price has fallen close to the SMA200 moving average, which can provide insight into a possible support area slightly below the current price level. On the daily chart, the price has already been moving below the SMA200 moving average for a long time. An ascending trendline (white) has been drawn on the 1-year chart, providing more insight into the technical picture of the underlying asset. If the price can stay above this trendline, this could be interpreted asa bullish sign for Bitcoin's future price movements. However, if the price falls clearly below this trendline, Bitcoin's technical outlook would weaken, which could trigger a significant downward movement.

The Ethereum (ETH / USD) price chart shows similar price movements to Bitcoin in March. However, an anomaly can be noted when looking at the 5-year chart (weekly candles), the price is below the SMA200 moving average. In this respect, Ethereum's technical picture is slightly weaker than Bitcoin’S when viewed in a broader context. The 1-year chart also shows a similar ascending trendline (white), to that seen in Bitcoin. If the price remains above this trendline, Ethereum has a clear backstop in the event of a decline, however, a clear downward break of the trendline could cause an even larger and possibly rapid decline.

March 2026 has shown that the crypto market has reached a new level of maturity. Not only have Bitcoin and Ethereum have not only reacted to headlines with volatility, they have even acted more as considered portfolio components in the eyes of investors even amid global crises. Althought high interest rates and the oil shock have limited growth, the crypto market’s ability to withstand global shocks without a major collapse indicates its establishment as a recognised asset class in the global investment world.

●     SMA200: 200-day moving average, red.

●     SMA50: 50-day moving average, blue.

●     EMA25: 25-day exponential moving average, yellow.

●     Volume.