Focus on investors' exposure to the U.S. and gold
The price of gold and other precious metals has been volatile in recent weeks. One main reason for this is the "flight to safety," whereby investors aim to reduce their exposure to the USD. However, after gold prices dropped 20%, we now believe that gold is trending up again. Of the S&P 500 sectors, the Communication Services and Information Technology sectors have experienced the highest proportion of positive earnings surprises. In our technical analysis of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we argue that lower interest rates could trigger a renewed price rally.
Case of the week: Will the price of gold stage a rapid comeback?
There has been significant volatility in precious metals. In recent weeks. Substantial price increases in silver and gold since the beginning of 2025 culminated in parabolic upward movement, followed by a sharp correction. The gold price subsequently dropped by approximately USD 1,200 from highs around USD 5,600 per troy ounce — over 20 percent — before recovering somewhat.
Key factors behind the increase in gold prices include concerns over sovereign debt, particularly in the US, and the returns on fixed-income assets. Combined with a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy, central banks and private investors have diversified away from U.S. bonds into precious metals, primarily gold. Geopolitical events so far in 2026, including US military operations in Venezuela and rhetoric surrounding the possible annexation of Greenland, have undoubtedly contributed to this trend.
Despite the volatility, the gold price has managed to avoid entering a bear market for now (i.e., a prolonged correction of more than 20 percent) for now. Currently, gold futures have recovered to around USD 5,000 per troy ounce, and prices are trending bullishly above the 20-day moving average (MA20) level.
One question is whether gold can climb back toward its all-time highs in the short term, or if it will consolidate over a longer period. If the price falls below $5,000 USD, the MA20 at approximately $4,840 USD could provide support. Over the next couple of weeks, the price development could likely be influenced by macroeconomic news and other geopolitical events. This week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and nonfarm payroll numbers will offer insight into US inflation and the job market. The latter has shown signs of deterioration. On February 20, the US Supreme Court may rule on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. If the tariffs are deemed illegal, the US dollar might drop, and precious metals might consequently gain.
Gold spot indicator (USD per troy ounce), one-year daily chart
Gold spot indicator (USD per troy ounce), five-year weekly chart
Macro comments
As of 6 February 2026, 59% of S&P 500 companies had reported their Q4 2025 results. According to Earnings Insight, 76% of these companies reported positive earnings per share (EPS), with 73% experiencing positive revenue surprises. Earnings growth in Q4 of 2025 has increased from 12% to 13% over the past week. For Q1 of 2026, Wall Street analysts are projecting earnings growth of 11.3% and revenue growth of 8.7%. The graph below illustrates the earnings scorecard in the form of better-than-anticipated EPS in Q4 of 2025, ranked by S&P 500 sector.
By Friday, 6 February 2026, 71 of the Swedish OMX companies for which consensus figures were available had published their Q4 2025 earnings. 56% of these results were better than expected, and revenues exceeded analysts' estimates in 44% of cases. Of the eight companies that reported order intake for which there were consensus expectations, five (63%) exceeded them.
S&P 500 earnings above estimates in Q4 2025, ranked by sector
The following major Nordic companies will report their quarterly results on Wednesday, February 11: Aker BP, Kojamo, Storebrand, Sweco and Yara. Also reporting their Q4 2025 results are the German bank Commerzbank and major US companies Cisco, McDonald's, Shopify, and T-Mobile US. In terms of macro statistics, China's consumer and producer price indexes will star for January. OPEC will release a monthly oil report. The United States will release the January Nonfarm Payroll report and the weekly oil stock statistics from the Department of Energy.
On Thursday, February 12, the following companies will report their interim results: Swedish companies Nibe and Hufvudstaden, as well as Finnish companies Kemira, Metso, Outokumpu, and Tietoevry, Norwegian companies Orkla and Veidekke, and Danish company TGS. Companies outside the Nordic region reporting will include Mercedes-Benz and Siemens (Germany), Nestlé (Switzerland), Unilever (United Kingdom), SoftBank (Japan), as well as Anheuser-Busch InBev, Applied Materials, Arista Networks and Twilio (U.S.). Turning to macro news, we begin with Japan's producer price index for January. Next is the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 and industrial production in December. The IEA will release a monthly oil report. The U.S. will release weekly jobless claims and existing home sales for January.
On Friday 13 February, we will receive interim reports from the following major Nordic companies: Aker, Elkem, Huhtamaki, Kalmar, Norsk Hydro, Norwegian and Tomra. Major companies reporting quarterly outside of the Nordic region include the French luxury goods company Hermès International and the aerospace and defence company Safran, the American biotech company Moderna, and the Japanese electronics company Sony. The macro news starts with Germany's wholesale prices and Spain's consumer price index for January, followed by the release of the Eurozone's December trade balance and Q4 GDP. The US will release CPI for January.
Could yields be the trigger for new highs in the U.S.?
The S&P 500 rebounded convincingly from support at the 100-day moving average (MA100), bolstered by robust earnings reports from AMD and Alphabet. However, the current bounce has not provided enough momentum for the index to reach new highs. Therefore, the S&P 500 may continue consolidating within the range between 6,807 and 7,000 for a while.
S&P 500 (in USD), one-year daily chart
S&P 500 (in USD), five-year weekly chart
The NASDAQ-100 is currently facing resistance at around 25,540. Ahead of Friday’s CPI release, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is approaching a 12-month low. Further weakness in yields could be a catalyst for equities and help the NASDAQ-100 regain positive momentum.
Nasdaq-100 (in USD), one-year daily chart
Nasdaq-100 (in USD), five-year weekly chart
In Sweden, the OMXS30 continues to trend higher, despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating overbought conditions. The index has been supported by Investor, a heavyweight that has boosted overall performance. Therefore, keep an eye on the Investor share price.
OMX30 (in SEK), one-year daily chart
OMX30 (in SEK), five-year weekly chart
The DAX in Germany is consolidating, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edging toward a tentative buy signal. Improving momentum in the U.S. could provide additional support for the DAX.
DAX (in EUR), one-year daily chart
DAX (in EUR), five-year weekly chart
The full name for abbreviations used in the previous text:
EMA 9: 9-Day Exponential Moving Average
Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.
MA20: 20-day Moving Average
MA50: 50-day Moving Average
MA100: 100-day Moving Average
MA200: 200-day Moving Average
MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence
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