Markets Heading into December
December is traditionally a busy month for the markets. This year will be a mixed bag: some indices have seen a rebound, but sentiment remains sensitive to economic data and comments from central banks. In addition, the markets are awaiting the next interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on December 10. There is still time for a decision, but expectations and speculation are already reflected in market movements. In this environment, the development of the coming weeks will largely depend on whether investors continue to take risks or whether nervousness begins to rise again.
S&P 500 (USD), one-year chart
S&P 500 (USD), five-year chart
The technical outlook for the S&P 500 Index improved during the last week of November, when the market saw a clear upward movement. The price managed to rise back above the 25-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA25), represented by the yellow line, and 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50) in blue on the daily chart, below which the price had fallen during November. Key levels include the peaks of early October 2025 at the price level of ~$6,765 and the descending trend line from the ATH (All Time High). If the price breaks the descending trend line upwards, it could provide insight into the continuation of the upward movement. On the other hand, if the price falls below the peaks of early October 2025 and below the 25-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA25) and 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50), the technical picture would weaken, at least when looking in the shorter term.
NASDAQ (USD), one-year chart
NASDAQ (USD), five-year chart
The NASDAQ Index has also seen an upward movement in late November after a longer downward movement. From a technical perspective, the daily chart highlights the 25-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA25) in yellow and 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50) in blue, above which the price reached in the last week of November. The peaks in early October 2025 at a price level of $25,200 are also close to the current price level. For now, the price has not surpassed this level. The peaks of August 2025 at the price level of $23,970, which the November bottoms also reached, can be considered a second important level. If the price remains above the aforementioned moving averages and the peaks of early October 2025, the technical picture can be viewed more positively. If the price falls below these, and especially below the price level of $23,970, the technical outlook of the index would be clearly weaker.
DAX (EUR), one-year chart
DAX (EUR), five-year chart
Compared to the US indices, the DAX Index has performed much worse in Europe. Although a strong upward movement was seen in the last week of November, the decline has been seen for a longer period. In November, the price fell below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200) in red on the daily chart and moved below it for several days. At the time of writing, the price has managed to return above it. However, the price is still below the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50) in blue and at the time of writing, at the level of the 25-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA25) in yellow. Based on these, the technical picture is clearly weaker compared to the US indices. The March 2025 peaks at the price level of €23,475 can also be raised as important levels, which has previously acted as a fairly clear support and resistance level. The 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200) is set at the same price level. A clear downward trendline can also be drawn from the index's ATH (All Time High). If the price breaks above this level and all the moving averages, it could bring a positive outlook to the DAX Index. However, if the price falls back below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200) and the March 2025 highs, it would make the technical picture weaker.
FTSE (GDP), one-year chart
FTSE (GDP), five-year chart
The FTSE is a timely pick among global indices and can also offer interesting trading opportunities. The index has been very positive all year, but recently the index has seen a decline. In late November, the index rose in the same way as other global indices. However, economic data from Great Britain has not been very strong for a while. Weaker economic data can provide insight into the difficulties of the Great Britain economy, which could also be reflected in the FTSE Index. However, the technical picture is positive so far, and the price is above all the moving averages visible on the chart. The chart also shows an ascending trendline, which has acted as a clear support level on several occasions. However, if the weaker economic data from Great Britain continues, the downward movement could continue. From a technical perspective, you can follow the 25-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA25) in yellow and the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50) in blue, both of which are visible on the charts, as well as the ascending trendline. If the price falls below these levels, it could cause a larger downward movement from a technical perspective. However, it is important to monitor the UK economic data. If there is an improvement in economic data, it could positively impact the index.
Indicators shown on the graphs:
● SMA200: 200-Day Moving Average
● SMA50: 50-Day Moving Average
● EMA25: 25-Day Exponential Moving Average
Risks
Credit risk of the issuer:
Investors in the products are exposed to the risk that the Issuer or the Guarantor may not be able to meet its obligations under the products. A total loss of the invested capital is possible. The products are not subject to any deposit protection.
Currency risk:
If the product currency differs from the currency of the underlying asset, the value of a product will also depend on the exchange rate between the respective currencies. As a result, the value of a product can fluctuate significantly.
Market risk:
The value of the products can fall significantly below the purchase price due to changes in market factors, especially if the value of the underlying asset falls. The products are not capital-protected
Product costs:
Product and possible financing costs reduce the value of the products.
Risk with leverage products:
Due to the leverage effect, there is an increased risk of loss (risk of total loss) with leverage products, e.g. Bull & Bear Certificates, Warrants and Mini Futures.
External author:
This information is in the sole responsibility of the guest author and does not necessarily represent the opinion of Bank Vontobel Europe AG or any other company of the Vontobel Group. The further development of the index or a company as well as its share price depends on a large number of company-, group- and sector-specific as well as economic factors. When forming his investment decision, each investor must take into account the risk of price losses. Please note that investing in these products will not generate ongoing income.
The products are not capital protected, in the worst case a total loss of the invested capital is possible. In the event of insolvency of the issuer and the guarantor, the investor bears the risk of a total loss of his investment. In any case, investors should note that past performance and / or analysts' opinions are no adequate indicator of future performance. The performance of the underlyings depends on a variety of economic, entrepreneurial and political factors that should be taken into account in the formation of a market expectation.
Disclaimer:
This information is neither an investment advice nor an investment or investment strategy recommendation, but advertisement. The complete information on the trading products (securities) mentioned herein, in particular the structure and risks associated with an investment, are described in the base prospectus, together with any supplements, as well as the final terms. The base prospectus and final terms constitute the solely binding sales documents for the securities and are available under the product links. It is recommended that potential investors read these documents before making any investment decision. The documents and the key information document are published on the website of the issuer, Vontobel Financial Products GmbH, Bockenheimer Landstrasse 24, 60323 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, on prospectus.vontobel.com and are available from the issuer free of charge. The approval of the prospectus should not be understood as an endorsement of the securities. The securities are products that are not simple and may be difficult to understand. This information includes or relates to figures of past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
© Bank Vontobel Europe AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.