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President Trump is sending mixed signals to the market about the direction of the war with Iran, and, consequently, the price of Brent oil. Although the U.S. escorted neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has warned Iran that the deadline for negotiations is approaching. Following the US-China summit this past weekend, there is also hope that China will mediate the conflict. Higher energy prices contributed to the increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index in April, which is, in turn, driving up U.S. interest rates.

The US Q1 2026 earnings season has concluded as convincingly as it began, with an overwhelming majority of positive earnings and revenue surprises among S&P 500 companies. The AI spending boom continues to drive the market, while the long DAX, short S&P 500 trade continues to look promising.

Gold fell 15% from its all-time high in January. Nevertheless, the world's central banks were net buyers of 244 tons during the first quarter of 2026 (World Gold Council, 07.05.2026). The price decline and the reserve build-up point in opposite directions. To understand where the market is heading from here requires a longer view of what central banks are actually doing and why.

Earnings in the S&P 500 grew by a record-breaking 27% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the highest level of earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2021. This week, attention turns to a series of interim reports from Nordic and European companies as well as interest rate announcements from Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank. The most important macro figure of the week is the U.S. nonfarm payroll report for April, which will be published on Friday, May 8.

In early May, copper was trading at around $13,000 per ton, close to record highs, despite growing signs of a global economic slowdown. Mine disruptions, a sulfuric acid shortage and record demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles have created a situation where the major investment banks cannot agree on whether the market is in surplus or deficit.

Bull & Bear certificates are leveraged products that make it possible to take amplified exposure to a price movement in either direction. They are used by investors who have a clear market view and want to act on it, whether that means reinforcing a conviction in a single stock, positioning around a macro event or managing a currency risk in the portfolio.

Exchange-traded products are a broad category that allow for leveraged investments in assets that might otherwise be inaccessible to private investors

With Bull & Bear certificates, investors can participate in the ups and downs of markets worldwide. The certificates offer investors the option of putting their market opinion into action according to their own appetite for risk. Bull & Bear certificates allow investors to participate with leverage in the performance of equities, indices, currencies, or commodities.

Tracker certificates enable investors to invest in themes, strategies, regions, or countries, making it easier to diversify even with small amounts of money. Tracker certificates replicate the performance of the underlying asset without leverage, a cap, or capital protection. Investors participate nearly 1:1 in rising and falling prices of the underlying asset. The underlying assets can especially be indices or equity baskets. In this way, you can invest in a whole stock market or basket in only one transaction without having to buy all the individual stocks. This is why tracker certificates are a great product for targeted investment in specific themes.

From sustainable investment solutions to community involvement and environmental sustainability: corporate responsibility has a long tradition at Vontobel. It is perceived in all its complexity - and regularly receives awards.