Outlook for the stock market year 2026: Where the threads come together
Geopolitics and monetary policy, trade disputes, latent inflationary pressure and the megatrend of artificial intelligence defined the stock market year 2025. Precious metals were in high demand in this mixed situation. The stock markets were able to continue their upward trend - despite some turbulence. In 2026, the stock markets are once again heading for uncertainties, although a wide range of opportunities could still open up for investors.
From February 6, 2900 athletes from over 90 countries will be competing for gold, silver and bronze medals in northern Italy. Tens of thousands of spectators on site and millions watching on TV will follow the 25th Winter Olympics for more than two weeks. Two weeks later, the Paralympics will take place in the region. On the capital markets, the sporting pecking order has shifted slightly in the year leading up to "Milano Cortina 2026". Silver, gold and Hang Seng® - this is the order on the winners' podium at the turn of the year 2025/26.
The second most important precious metal won the ranking by a huge margin. in 2025, the troy ounce of silver recorded the biggest annual gain of all time with an increase of 145%. Gold increased in price by 65%, its strongest performance since 1979. The third-placed index, the Hang Seng®, contains shares from China that are listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The podium is no coincidence. To a certain extent, the top 3 are the threads of the stock market year 2025. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, latent inflationary pressure and an expansive monetary policy provided an ideal breeding ground for precious metals. At the same time, the megatrend of artificial intelligence (AI) electrified investors. China is doing everything it can to be at the forefront of this trend. This goal and government economic stimulus gave shares from the Middle Kingdom a comeback.
Under the spell of MAGA policy
The US was another hub of activity last year. Following his return to the White House, President Donald Trump left no doubt about his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) slogan. He kept the world on tenterhooks with threats and impositions of tariffs, tirades against the US Federal Reserve, an expansive fiscal policy and a budget freeze lasting more than 40 days. On the stock markets, the dollar was one of the victims of this development. At the end of the year, the greenback recorded a double-digit percentage loss against both the euro and the Swiss franc. While the weakness of the dollar fueled the gold rally, cryptocurrencies struggled. At the beginning of October 2025, Bitcoin, the most important representative of this asset class, reached an all-time high of USD 126,223. The BTC/USD pairing then turned sharply downwards.
AI: Autumn of doubt
In view of the MAGA hype, the stock markets threatened to break the thread several times. In the end, however, they recorded another positive year. The global benchmark MSCI® World ended 2025 with a gain of 20%. Here, too, AI was the key driver. Nvidia is spearheading this boom. With its components, the US semiconductor company is indispensable for many AI applications. Nvidia is growing accordingly - both operationally and on Wall Street. In 2025, the group replaced Apple as the world's most valuable company. At the end of October, its market capitalization climbed above the five trillion US dollar mark for the first time. However, Nvidia was unable to maintain this peak level. Instead, the mega-cap fell by up to a fifth in November.
Mit dem Primus mussten andere Vertreter des Segments Federn lassen. Die Korrektur wurde von einer intensiven Diskussion über eine mögliche Übertreibung begleitet. Dan Scott, Chief Investment Officer der Bank Vontobel, erachtet den Vergleich der Entwicklung im KI-Sektor mit der Dotcom-Blase als bemerkenswert. «Dies zeigt, wie wachsam die Märkte derzeit sind», meint er. Laut seinem Kollegen Mario Montagnani, Senior Investment Strategist, sind die Umsatzpotenziale dieser noch reifenden Technologie bis dato nur schemenhaft sichtbar. Zudem hätten der sprunghafte Anstieg der Investitionen für KI sowie die unterschiedlichen Finanzierungswege Zweifel aufkommen lassen. «Unsere Einschätzung bleibt jedoch positiv», betont Montagnani.
Equities: positive outlook
He bases this assessment on the fact that revenues from AI are already considerable and are increasing rapidly. In addition to revenue growth, margins, operating cash flows and the intensity of investment at most major providers of computing, storage and network resources (hyperscalers) remain solid. "This is another clear difference to the dotcom era," explains the strategist. The forecast that the investments expected for the coming years will be financed primarily from internal funds, i.e. cash flow and private equity, fits in with this. Only around 40 percent of the capital is expected to come from private loans or bond issues. In total, around three trillion US dollars could flow into the AI infrastructure in the period from 2025 to 2028 (see chart). According to Montagnani, however, it is important to continue to monitor the bond markets closely. No tensions comparable to the levels of previous bubbles can yet be observed there. "Despite the recent volatility, we believe that the general upward trend on the equity markets remains intact," says the expert, summing up the assessment of Bank Vontobel's Multi Asset Boutique.
USA: Important decisions
Whether this assessment proves correct is likely to depend on US monetary policy, among other things. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the markets are currently assuming that the US will see two further interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026. At the end of the year, the target rate would then be in a range of 3.00% to 3.25%. Donald Trump wants financing costs to be significantly lower right now. However, Fed President Jerome Powell has so far withstood the pressure from the White House. The US's top monetary watchdog is leaving in May. Trump has not yet nominated a successor. His economic advisor Kevin Hassett is considered the favorite. What is certain is that the new Fed Chair must be in line with the President when it comes to monetary policy. "Anyone who disagrees with me will never be Fed Chair," Trump made clear on his Truth Social platform.
In the fall, we will see how much support Americans have for the president's policies. Halfway through his four-year term, a third of the senators and all members of the House of Representatives will be newly elected. The Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both chambers. In view of Trump's falling approval ratings, his party is in danger of losing its lead in the mid-term elections. This could cause one or two threads to break when it comes to "Make America Great Again" or Trump could face significantly more headwinds.
It is very difficult to predict how politics, the economy and stock markets will actually develop. Nevertheless, there are opportunities for investors to potentially invest their capital profitably at every stage. The following topics and trends could be interesting with a view to the new year.
Not all that glitters is gold - what could be next for precious metals?
Precious metals were one of the "driving forces" of the investment universe in 2025. As in the previous year 2024, the price of gold recorded a double-digit percentage increase. The yellow precious metal rose by around 65%. Silver and platinum fared even better. Both precious metals have more than doubled in value since the beginning of the year. The bar is therefore set high for 2026. Can precious metals continue their run in the new year or is the air slowly running out?