Risiko på nedsiden ind i maj!
Den enkle del af det oversolgte opsving i april ligger nu bag os, og S&P 500 er steget med 14,5 % siden det absolutte lavpunkt den 7. april. De sidste par uger har været præget af store udsving og høj volatilitet, og S&P 500 er steget med +8 % den seneste uge. Nu er rapporteringsperioden over os med fokus på Microsoft og Meta onsdag efterfulgt af Amazon og Apple torsdag.
Positioneringsmæssigt er markedets aktører fortsat utroligt skeptiske over for amerikanske aktier, specielt aktierne i "Magnificent Seven". Dertil kommer, at vi har set en betydelig forbedring af markedsbredden de seneste uger. Det skaber et godt fundament for et kommende sommerrally på de amerikanske aktiemarkeder, men spørgsmålet er, om det ikke er for tidligt at starte allerede i begyndelsen af april. Vi ved, at maj og juni sæsonmæssigt er blandt de svageste måneder i løbet af året, og efter tre ugers aggressivt opsving på aktiemarkederne kan der være risiko for nedadgående kurser igen på kort sigt.
Handelsmønsteret for S&P 500 er kendetegnet ved, at der er ca. 190 dage mellem de store cyklusbunde i indekset. Den næste bund indtræffer i midten af maj, og det er ikke ualmindeligt, at vi ser svaghed på børserne 1-2 uger inde i en cyklusbund. I mellemtiden har S&P siden sidste sommer haft 66 handelsdage mellem mere kortsigtede cyklustoppe før fornyet svaghed. Denne top nås den 29. april. Samlet set betyder det, at der kan være fornyet risiko for nedgange i løbet af de næste to uger, men at det kan åbne mulighed for at øge aktieinvesteringer på baggrund af en sådan svaghed før en forventet styrkelse i sommermånederne!
S&P 500 (i USD) med 190 dage mellem større cyklusbunde
S&P 500 (i USD) med 66 dage mellem kortsigtede cyklustoppe
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