Column

Nonfarm payrolls on Friday, what's cooking

Carlsquare

6 Oct 2022 | 1 min read

Contents

Initial jobless claims (1,000), 13 January-5 October 2022 EUR/USD, daily one-year price chart EUR/USD, weekly five-year share price chart

To fight inflation, the Fed is doing its best to cool the labour market and the economic demand. Friday's (7 October) release of nonfarm payrolls for September in the US will show whether the central bank's efforts are answered or not. Looking at the falling data for initial jobless claims in September, the Fed’s efforts do not seem to have any effect. Nevertheless, this week, ahead of the nonfarm payrolls, the ten-year US Treasury yield has declined. The upcoming job data can thus again put upwards pressure on the interest rates.

Initial jobless claims (1,000), 13 January-5 October 2022

Source: Department of Labor and Carlsquare.

Falling interest rates have weakened the USD. As shown in the chart below, EUR/USD is trading close to resistance in the shape of a falling trendline. Does this provide an opportunity to sell EUR/USD?

EUR/USD, daily one-year price chart

Source: Infront and Carlsquare. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Bull and Bear Certificate

Bull and Bear Certificate

EUR/USD, weekly five-year share price chart

Source: Infront and Carlsquare. Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The full name for abbreviations used in the previous text:

EMA 9: 9-day exponential moving average

Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.

MA20: 20-day moving average

MA50: 50-day moving average

MA100: 100-day moving average

MA200: 200-day moving average

MACD: Moving average convergence divergence

Risks

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