The focus is on the Fed today

Rocket Lab has been met with overwhelmingly positive sentiment from both professional and retail investors. With 70 successful launches to date, the latest of which was in August 2025, Electron is the world’s most frequently launched small orbit launch platform. Despite the stock having climbed considerably over the past couple of months, there is likely to be further growth over the remainder of 2025.

Rocket Lab (ticker symbol: RKLB) is a market leader in launch services, space ecosystem products, and related services. Despite being an underdog competing with SpaceX, RKLB has gained significant momentum in the last year. Since Q4 2024, its share price has increased around tenfold. While many of its peers have also enjoyed investor inflows, RKLB is one of the stocks that has garnered the most attention.

RKLB is generating a relatively reliable flow of profits from its Space Systems business. The Electron rocket was the first that the company designed and built to reach orbit. This small launch vehicle saw its maiden flight in 2017. Its customers are mainly government bodies, although it also has some commercial clients. Other than Electron, Neutron is a significantly larger medium-lift vehicle. Its maiden launch is expected in late 2025, marking an important milestone for the company. Although the test flight will not generate any revenue, the company has already scheduled three commercial launches for 2026, with a further five planned for 2027. Furthermore, as announced in August, RKLB celebrated the official opening of Launch Complex 3, which is intended for use with Neutron. The launch site was completed in just under two years, boosting confidence in RKLB’s ambition to construct a floating launch site for Neutron following a successful test flight. 

RKLB's ambition is to become an end-to-end space company. Many acquisitions have been carried out to offer a more comprehensive range of products. This is a prudent strategy given the company's strong share performance, which makes acquiring targets with shares less costly. This boost in performance has been further fueled by retail investors and analysts alike, with consensus targets doubling in just three months.

With clear milestones ahead, such as new launches and effective acquisition opportunities, and ever-improving confidence in the stock from professional and retail investors alike, it is likely that the share's momentum will remain strong for the rest of the year. Postponements to the Neutron launch, or an outright failure to launch, could naturally have a significant impact on the share price. However, the risk of failure appears smaller than the opportunity to invest before take-off.

On Tuesday, 9 September, IT company Oracle released an encouraging interim report. The report confirmed strong demand for AI, causing Oracle's share price to surge by 36 percent the following day and pulling many other tech stocks up with it. Following the report, Oracle's market value surpassed those of JPMorgan Chase, Visa, and Walmart, establishing Oracle as the tenth most valuable company on U.S. stock exchanges.

The most important event today, Wednesday 17 September, is the interest rate decision by the Fed. Market consensus expects the Fed to lower its policy rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. Wednesday's macroeconomic agenda otherwise begins with Japan's August trade balance. This will be followed by the UK and Eurozone consumer price index figures for August. The U.S. will also release housing construction statistics and weekly oil inventory figures for August (Department of Energy). General Mills are scheduled to release an interim report.

On Thursday, 18 September, the two Swedish companies, Axfood and Mildef, will host their respective Capital Market Days. In terms of macroeconomic news, Japan will report on machinery orders in July. A few hours later, the Eurozone will publish its current account balance and construction production figures for July. The Bank of England will publish its interest rate decision. In the United States, the Philadelphia Fed Index for September and initial weekly jobless claims will be released. There will also be interim reports from FedEx and Lennar. FedEx's report will be interesting as it may provide insight into transport volumes.

On Friday 19 September, the Bank of Japan will make an interest rate announcement, alongside the Japanese Consumer Price Index for August. Turning to Europe, we will see the UK's retail sales figures for August, Germany's producer price index figures for August, and France's industrial expectations figures for September.

Weakness in Europe, while stocks in the US continue to perform

The S&P 500 index remains in a strong uptrend, trading above all key moving averages which are aligned in a bullish manner and providing dynamic support. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70, highlighting overbought conditions and raising the probability of a near-term pause or correction.

The NASDAQ-100 is in a strong uptrend. It has broken above both horizontal resistance and the upper boundary of its channel. All key moving averages are aligned bullishly and are providing support. However, the RSI is approaching overbought levels, suggesting short-term caution.

The DAX has weakened and is now trading below the key short- and medium-term moving averages, consolidating near the lower end of its range. Support levels are found at 23,065 and 23,360, and a breakdown could lead to further downside towards 22,660. Momentum signals are bearish, with the MACD in negative territory.

The OMXS30 shifted from a strong uptrend into consolidation after breaking below its rising channel. The price is currently capped by resistance near 2,650, with support around 2,560–2,600. Short- and medium-term moving averages are flattening, while the MACD suggests positive, albeit fading, momentum. Overall, the market is range-bound, and a decisive move above the resistance level or below the support level is likely to determine the next major trend.

The full name for abbreviations used in the previous text:

EMA 9: 9-day exponential moving average

Fibonacci: There are several Fibonacci lines used in technical analysis. Fibonacci numbers are a sequence in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers.

MA20: 20-day moving average

MA50: 50-day moving average

MA100: 100-day moving average

MA200: 200-day moving average

MACD: Moving average convergence divergence